O papel da distribuição de capacidades na radicalização do conflito Irã – Israel: um estudo a partir da teoria da transição de poder
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26792/rbed.v13i1.75498Palavras-chave:
Irã, Israel, Transição de Poder, Segurança InternacionalResumo
As escaladas militares entre Teerã e Tel-Aviv, entre abril e outubro de 2024, e novamente em junho de 2025, representam uma clara radicalização do conflito entre os dois Estados acerca do ordenamento regional do Oriente Médio. O presente artigo tem como objetivo analisar a disputa Irã – Israel a partir das perspectivas teórica e metodológica da Teoria de Transição de Poder, denotando o papel das transformações na distribuição de capacidades econômicas e militares entre os beligerantes como fator determinante de suas posturas recentes. Tanto a belicosidade recente de Israel quanto as retaliações iranianas são teorizadas aqui como resultados do início de uma dinâmica de paridade de capacidades entre os dois Estados, que apresenta novas demandas securitárias para as lideranças dos países beligerantes e torna mais provável a eclosão de novos conflitos na região.
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